The hottest photovoltaic listed companies compete

Photovoltaic listed companies compete to join the capacity expansion competition

the domestic solar photovoltaic industry is like a crazy racing car

with the official implementation of the "access conditions for polysilicon industry" on March 1, as the upstream market of the solar photovoltaic industry, polysilicon has been "from dream to reality" since then

photovoltaic listed companies have become the protagonists of photovoltaic capacity expansion competitions

poly GCL, the largest polysilicon producer in China, announced that it would spend HK $17.7 billion to double its production capacity this year and next. Another photovoltaic giant, Jiangxi Savi, reported that its polysilicon business would be listed in Hong Kong in the second half of the year

as for Chaori sun, which was not long after the A-share listing, sunflowers have also raised the acquisition flag one after another, moving forward to the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain

even star technology, which is mainly engaged in upstream equipment accessories for a long time, can't resist the temptation of downstream demand expansion and begins to dabble in silicon wafer projects

at the same time, Oake, which has recently set foot in photovoltaic, also shortened the silicon wafer project originally planned for 5 years to 2 years, and approached the rising photovoltaic market at full speed

"the more you go back, the more intense the competition will be. At that time, the scale and competitiveness will be compared." A new energy researcher at Guojin securities told

however, it is worth noting that when the photovoltaic market is in full swing, Lingguang industry announced its withdrawal from the polysilicon industry a few days ago. The annual reports released by Leshan power and Tianwei baobian also showed that their current polysilicon business performed mediocrely in 2010, when the market recovered

"most domestic polysilicon production capacity will be released in the second half of 2011, and JG 3050 (1) electrical insulating bushings and accessories for construction will begin to be released in 1998. Although the current market is still in short supply, with overcapacity in the middle and lower reaches of the market and weakening terminal demand, many listed companies involved in polysilicon are afraid to get ideal returns." Another photovoltaic research professional believes that capacity release, including texture, mechanical and electrical performance, needs to be synchronized with terminal 1: improper host installation: the main body installation is not horizontal, and once there is a dislocation, it will inevitably face greater risks. In terms of risk, the more upstream or the more complete the industrial chain, the safer the enterprise will be

upstream companies benefit from the release of production capacity

the market price of polysilicon has reached a new high, and the current spot price has reached $114/kg. This is the second sharp rise in the polysilicon market since September 2010. Affected by this, the market generally expects that domestic listed companies focusing on upstream polysilicon business will inevitably become the direct beneficiaries of this round of market

however, the facts are somewhat unexpected

at the end of February, Leshan power and Tianwei baobian released their annual reports successively. According to the annual report, the profit contribution of the polysilicon projects of these two companies, which are recognized as leading companies in the polysilicon industry in China, is not large

Leshan power and Tianwei baobian currently jointly set up the Letian Tianwei project with a capacity of 3000 tons, holding 51% and 49% respectively. In addition, Tianwei baobian also holds 51% equity of Tianwei Sichuan silicon with a capacity of 3000 tons and 35.66% equity of Xinguang silicon with a capacity of 1260 tons

financial data show that since Leshan Power Holdings switched to production in April 2010, Letian Tianwei has just been able to turn losses into profits, with a full year profit of only 587000 yuan, while Tianwei Sichuan silicon industry has only made a profit of 5.33 million yuan, while Xinguang silicon industry, which has reached production for two years, has a full year net profit of only about 30million yuan, far from the historical peak of profits of more than 100 million

"the production capacity of polysilicon enterprises is not equal to the output. It takes about two years to gradually achieve most projects after changing production. Therefore, when the market is popular, the benefit of upstream listed companies depends entirely on the actual output." The aforementioned securities traders analyzed the above data

in this regard, Tianwei baobian also said that the current decline in the company's net profit is mainly due to the high cost factors caused by the fact that the company's new energy enterprises are in the stage of construction completion or commissioning, large early market development expenditure and under production

perhaps because of this, at present, the domestic polysilicon market is still in the stage of supply exceeding demand

according to customs data, domestic polysilicon demand remained high in January this year, with imports of about 5521 tons, an increase of 74.8% year-on-year. This means that in the short term, with the timely release of production capacity, many polysilicon enterprises can still make considerable profits

however, in the long run, upstream polysilicon enterprises will still be tested by downstream supply and demand

the aforementioned researcher of securities companies said that from 2011, domestic production capacity will be released sharply, and the output of Jiangsu Zhongneng under poly GCL will approach 21000 tons, while Jiangxi Saiwei will increase from the current 11000 tons to 18000 tons. Last year, the domestic supply of polysilicon was only about 40000 tons. Due to the high domestic costs and the problem of downstream enterprises increasing polysilicon inventory in advance, domestic polysilicon enterprises may have passive surplus

"what kind of situation will appear depends on the market. If the contradiction between supply and demand is not very prominent, most of the upstream listed companies will obtain higher returns in 2011." The aforementioned securities companies remain optimistic about this

the demand in the middle and lower reaches or restricted decreases

for photovoltaic enterprises in the middle and lower reaches, due to the short time required for project expansion, it has become a general consensus to seize benefits through capacity expansion before the market demand is clearly weakening

in June last year, as soon as the demand for solar terminals started, Wuxi Suntech, which is mainly engaged in battery modules, announced a high-profile production expansion plan. It plans to invest 2.68 billion yuan to expand the production capacity of 1GW, almost doubling; Tianwei Yingli, another photovoltaic leader, also announced the expansion of 400MW capacity on July 8; Poly GCL, the largest polysilicon manufacturer in China and the third largest polysilicon manufacturer in the world, announced on July 29 that it would invest an additional US $300million to build a silicon wafer facility with a capacity of about 1000MW in Jiangsu, increasing the total capacity of silicon wafers to 3000MW, becoming the world's largest silicon wafer manufacturer

in the A-share market, Toray, a listed company in Japan, launched a new textured nylon material, salacona, and its production expansion momentum is also rapid. On November 4 last year, aerospace electromechanical announced that it planned to invest in the new "200MW high-efficiency solar cell production line technological transformation project" on the basis of the completed 150MW cell production line; On the 9th, Dongfang Risheng also announced that it planned to invest 830million yuan to build the "technical transformation project of annual 300MW solar cell production line". Earlier, Hengdian dongci, San'an optoelectronics, fosu and other enterprises have also announced capacity expansion plans

but it is unavoidable that the rapid release of new capacity in the middle and lower reaches will make the terminal supply and demand situation severe

according to relevant statistical data, the global solar photovoltaic industry supply will reach 25gw in 2011, while the actual installed terminal demand is only 19gw, and the middle and downstream photovoltaic industry will have a significant surplus. China's photovoltaic manufacturing industry, which accounts for half of the world's midstream and downstream markets, will undoubtedly bear the brunt, and the market price will be forced to lower

it is reported that there will be 11 domestic solar cell manufacturers with a capacity of more than 1GW in 2011. In addition, many small and medium-sized enterprises have recently joined. From silicon wafers to batteries and components, there may be phased overcapacity due to the centralized release of capacity. At that time, these midstream and downstream enterprises will face market differentiation, stronger suppliers will have greater living space, and small and medium-sized enterprises with smaller scale and higher cost will encounter a cold wave

"it is not difficult to understand that the midstream and downstream listed companies with abundant funds have begun to expand the industrial chain and do vertical integration, with the purpose of resisting systematic risks." The aforementioned photovoltaic professionals said

on March 1, sunflower, which is mainly engaged in large-scale and high-efficiency crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells and components, announced that it plans to participate in Jiaozuo coal (Group) Hejing Technology Co., Ltd. in order to stabilize the purchase of polysilicon, the company's raw material. The latter is a professional polysilicon enterprise with a current capacity of 1800 tons and a planned capacity of 18000 tons. Earlier than before, the company also participated in the 10MW photovoltaic power station demonstration project in Zhejiang Province

on February 23, Chaori sun also announced that it planned to spend 100million yuan to acquire Luoyang Saiyang Silicon Industry Co., Ltd. and Shanghai Weixue Solar Energy Technology Co., Ltd. The company clearly pointed out that the acquisition of the former is mainly to integrate the industrial chain and improve the overall strength and market competitiveness, while the acquisition of the latter is to further expand the production scale of the company's original crystalline silicon solar cell module and break through the bottleneck of production capacity

up to now, Tianwei baobian is the listed company with the most complete industrial chain that is generally favored in the A-share market. Due to its 25.99% stake in Tianwei Yingli, the domestic photovoltaic leader, the company has a complete crystalline silicon battery industry chain including downstream module production and photovoltaic power station installation, with a relatively complete layout. According to its 2010 annual report, Tianwei Yingli contributed a net profit of 214 million yuan to Tianwei baobian, accounting for 33.77% of the company's net profit

"by opening up the upper and lower industrial chains, we can offset the adverse effects of a certain link, which is the greatest benefit of vertical integration." In the view of the aforementioned securities traders

at present, in addition to the embarrassment of raw material procurement and terminal product sales, the domestic photovoltaic industry is likely to be burdened by the excessive middle manufacturing capacity

"any disturbance in the downstream will bring a strong reaction. Just as the market has just improved, the capacity expansion in the middle and lower reaches will rush. If the terminal demand drops sharply, it is bound to be a tragic scene."

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